Hollywood Pins Hopes on Thanksgiving: Will Fall’s Biggest Releases Revive a Sluggish Box Office?

Hollywood is banking on Thanksgiving weekend to rekindle the year’s flagging box office. With the highly anticipated releases of Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2, studios are hoping to emulate some of the buzz that drove the Barbenheimer phenomenon this summer, though the odds of replicating that unique synergy seem slim. As Fandango’s director of movie analytics, Shawn Robbins, observes: “It won’t happen in the same way, but the conversation around Wicked and Gladiator is reminiscent of Barbie and Oppeheimer. They’re fueling each other”.

The pressure to deliver is high. October’s box office was dismal, with Joker: Folie à Deux and Venom: The Last Dance both underperforming. And with no billion-dollar behemoth on the December horizon, like Avatar or Spider-Man, there’s little certainty about a blockbuster to close out 2024 on a high note. Instead, theaters are pinning hopes on these Thanksgiving releases, which are expected to draw a diverse audience. “The industry is looking at Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2 as a Holy Trinity of moviegoing” says Robbins. “It’s hard to recall a Thanksgiving lineup with this much potential”.

The three films are each projected to open strongly. Wicked is anticipated to bring in $80 to $85 million over its first weekend, Gladiator II is targeting $55 to $65 million, and Moana 2, debuting on Nov. 27, aims to surpass $100 million over five days. This Thanksgiving’s lineup could be just what theaters need to recover from a year that has seen domestic box office revenues fall by more than 11% from 2023 and nearly 27% from pre-pandemic levels, per Comscore.

Turkey Day has historically been a popular time for cinemas, with 2018’s record-setting $315 million in grosses, led by films like Ralph Breaks the Internet and Fantastic Beasts. Last year, however, sales were one of the worst in modern history, topping out at just $125 million. This season, however, theaters are feeling optimistic. “It’s looking like the biggest Thanksgiving we’ve ever had” shares Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer at Flix Brewhouse. “You can make up a lot of ground very quickly with three big movies”.

Of course, each film has its own challenges. Wicked, despite high expectations, must counter the box-office curse that often plagues stage-to-screen adaptations. Gladiator II hopes to recapture the magic of the original film two decades later, but has received several criticisms for its historical inaccuracy, while Moana 2, initially planned as a Disney+ series, will need to capture the musical charm of its predecessor. “We feel we’re the standout film for adult audiences” says Chris Aronson, Paramount’s president of domestic distribution, referring to Gladiator II. “Our film is unique in the marketplace as an R-rated follow-up to a best picture winner”.

Thanksgiving offers additional releases for niche audiences, including A24’s horror Heretic and Lionsgate’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. “Studios have gotten into the habit of putting one gigantic movie on a weekend” Randleman notes. “But there’s enough space for all to thrive at the same time.”

Source: Variety